Do Debates Matter?

In the epic saga of presidential politics, debates are the ultimate season blockbuster, playing to sell-out crowds. This week's debate promises to be a juggernaut.

Consider this: Trump has played a leading role in three of the four most-watched debates in US history. This year, the lead-up is spicier than ever. We have race narratives, rising feminist power, criminals and prosecutors, an assassination attempt, not to mention historic plot twists that delivered this moment. We could be looking at record-breaking viewership, topping 85 million people.

Source: Nielsen

Let’s compare the anticipated debate audience with the live broadcast viewership of the recent conventions. According to Nielsen, 25 million watched the final night of the Republican Convention, and 26 million watched the Democratic counterpart. If we assume very little overlap in these audiences, up to 51 million viewers plopped down to root, nod, cry, and cheer for the home team.

Let’s do some napkin math:

Who are these 34-plus million people who will watch the upcoming debate but did not view the convention?

I think of them as Spectators. They are not as consumed with politics as the convention-watching Boosters, but they are concerned about politics, and they love a good fight. Spectators want to see the candidates stripped of their entourage, climb into the ring, and rely on their raw wits and verbal agility to jab, punch, weave, bob, spin, and pounce on their opponent’s weaknesses.

After all, if you didn’t want to watch a long string of loyalists beat the same drum, watching head-to-head combat in two-minute rants is more captivating and more memorable.

Together, the (convention) Boosters and the (debate-only) Spectators will play a critical role in the last eight weeks of the election. In our hyperconnected age, a debate is far more than a two-hour event.  It is a content goldmine that feeds the insatiable maw of social media for weeks. A single zinger, gaffe, or well-placed house fly can spawn thousands of memes, dominate news cycles, drive late-night monologues, and inspire thoughtful dinner-table conversation in millions of homes. Boosters and Spectators are among the most effective trusted messengers to carry the narrative to the rest of the electorate.

More napkin math:

Based on my calculation, roughly 70 million people will vote without watching a full convention night or the live debate. 

I think of these folks as Receivers. They pay less attention to the daily machinations of the political news and make their choices based on limited information from identity cues and secondary sources. 

Those of us who work in politics know the power of homophily. This is the tendency of humans to think and act like other humans around them. While political ads and influencers scale to large audiences, conversations between individuals are more effective at changing hearts, minds, and behavior. Your partner, child, neighbor, co-worker, and yoga buddy have more influence over your behavior than Oprah or Michelle.

If you are reading this, you are likely a Booster or Spectator. Chances are you wield far more influence than you know. There are 70 million people who are receptive to the influence of people they trust.  Reflect on what resonated with you about the debate.  Reflect on what made you feel good.  Ask people, "Are you voting this year?" Listen to their replies and share why you are choosing to vote.  Debates matter because they inspire us to act and to be an inspiration for others.

Don’t be shy – the world cannot afford it. Talk about it at the gym, on the bus, in Zoom, at the bar, over the fence, in the back of the Lyft.

70M people need a trusted messenger. Tag! - you’re it.